Gary Armida's Blog
Under General Manager Ken Williams, the Chicago White Sox have always had an interesting business model. It was Williams who just took Alex Rios and his $69 million contract off of waivers. He traded four players for Jake Peavy, who is always a health risk. He made the curious move to trade Daniel Hudson for Edwin Jackson. And, he surprised everyone with the selection of Robin Ventura as his Manager. Williams is certainly unpredictable, but he has been successful. The White Sox are 929-854 with one World Series title during Williams’ 11 year tenure.
In the Moneyball era, Williams is viewed more as a traditional General Manager in terms of his methods. His recent drafts have been successful despite the supposed reputation of not using analytics (he does have an Assistant GM who uses advanced analytics quite well). He drafted Chris Sale and Addison Reed in 2010. The two hard throwers are building blocks.
Currently, the White Sox are in first place after most analysts predicted a last place finish. The White Sox are riding the hot bats of Paul Konerko, Adam Dunn, Dayan Viciedo, and Alex Rios. Jake Peavy is healthy and pitching much like he was expected last season.
The fact that the White Sox are contending should not be all that surprising. Last season, they won 79 games with everything going wrong and chaos in the dugout. At the very least, if Adam Dunn returned to form, Alex Rios became an average hitter, and the pitching staff got healthy, they would win 81 games. All of those things have happened.
And, there is reason to expect more. That reason comes in the form of Chris Sale, the White Sox’s first round draft pick in the 2010 draft who has spent the past two seasons in the bullpen as a way to limit his innings as he matured. Now 23 years old, Sale has just finished the month of May by winning the American League Pitcher of the Month.
Through his first 10 starts, Sale leads the American League in wins and ERA. He is 7-2 with a 2.30 ERA in 66.2 innings. He’s averaged 6.3 H/9, 0.5 HR/9, 2.4 BB/9, and 9.3 K/9. Even more impressive is his 2.57 FIP, meaning that his true performance is very close to his ERA. In other words, he hasn’t been the beneficiary of great defense. Sale, in the midst of his age 23 season, has performed similarly to his work as a reliever, which is somewhat surprising. During his first two seasons as a reliever, he has averaged 6.3 H/9, 3.5 BB/9, and 10.5 K/9. The fact that he has matched, or in some cases has improved, his statistics as a reliever bodes well for the future. There has been no drop off from the one inning stints to pitching 6 and 7 innings at a time.
The ability to maintain his performance as a starter shouldn’t be ignored. His ceiling is quite high. He is, obviously, a high strikeout pitcher, as well as a groundball pitcher. His 1.32 groundball to flyball ratio is compiled with his three pitch arsenal. As a reliever, he averaged 95 MPH with his fastball. This season, he is averaging 92 MPH. That fastball is complemented by an 80 MPH slider, and an 84 MPH changeup. The three pitches have allowed Sale to elicit swings and misses with pitches thrown in the strike zone at an 83 percent rate. Incredibly, that is nearly identical to the 84 percent rate he posted as a reliever.
There is no doubt that Chris Sale has the talent to be an elite, top of the rotation pitcher. As long as he is healthy, his stuff is dominant. But, that isn’t the end of the story. It should be, but given the unpredictability of Ken Williams and the White Sox organization, health cannot be guaranteed. It seems harsh, but given how the organization handled Sale this past month, there is much to worry about. Because Sale had some soreness, the White Sox suddenly announced that Sale was going to be their closer for the rest of the season. Pitching Coach Don Cooper, a very underrated pitching coach, said that it was the best way to keep Sale healthy.
With respect to Mr. Cooper, moving a pitcher to the bullpen is not a guarantee for health. The Yankees tried to protect Joba Chamberlain by shuttling him back and forth between the bullpen and rotation. He is now recovering from Tommy John Surgery. In fact, almost everything the industry does with pitching isn’t effective. Pitch counts don’t prevent injury; the five man rotation doesn’t prevent injuries. Innings limits don’t prevent them either. Instead of addressing the real problem, which likely is a conditioning issue or a delivery issue, teams like the White Sox think that limitations will prevent. They just don’t.
Even more disconcerting was the fact that the White Sox moved Sale to the bullpen for one appearance before giving him an MRI. If they were that concerned about his health, perhaps checking out why his elbow was sore would’ve been the appropriate action. After the appearance, the White Sox sent him for an MRI. In part, it was to satisfy Sale who was protesting the move to the bullpen. The MRI came back clean and Sale was immediately inserted back into the rotation. Since then, Sale has seemingly been on a mission to disprove all doubts of his organization. Since being re-inserted into the rotation, Sale has given up just 7 runs in 33.2 innings, while allowing just 22 hits and striking out 39 batters.
And, now the White Sox seemed convinced that their young ace is fine. The organization went from needing him to go to the bullpen to stay healthy to now allowing him to throw over 97 pitches in each start since returning to the rotation. The last two starts have seen him throw 115 and 119 pitches respectively. The 115 pitch start saw him strike out 15 Rays batters. The last one was a complete game against the Seattle Mariners. Sale went from not being able to pitch more than one inning to a guy who can work over the 100 pitch mark. Something doesn’t add up about their evaluation methods.
The problem isn’t that the White Sox are letting Sale pitch. The problem is that they were so reactionary to a potential problem that they acted quickly. With those actions, it is difficult to have confidence that they will keep their most valuable commodity healthy. Home grown, elite pitching is the most valuable commodity in the sport. It is how organization can win for an extended period of time. The White Sox look foolish for how they handled Sale this season. Hopefully, they learn and do better. But, their actions don’t inspire confidence. They seem to be, in spite of having a very good Pitching Coach, like every other organization. They are simply hoping that their ace can stay healthy.
If he can stay healthy, the White Sox are legitimate contenders. If he breaks down, they just don’t have enough pitching. An organization can be unconventional when it comes to trades and lineup choices. Someone like Ken Williams can do the unexpected and have it work out. With pitching health, that just isn’t an option. Sending Chris Sale to the bullpen was an impulsive, reactionary move made out of fear. Hopefully, they will handle their ace better from here.
Gary Armida is a Baseball writer for Operationsports as well as Gotham Baseball Magazine, The FCP Baseball Report. Talk with him on twitter @garyarmida
# 2
Gary Armida @ Jun 5
I agree. Biomechanics are definitely the way to go. Actually, I've written a few things about Biomechanics, as recently as a couple of weeks ago about the Orioles using biomechanics system-wide. http://fcpbaseballreport.com/blog/20...-organization/
Glad to see people talking about biomechanics for sure. Right now, it's the only answer I see.
Glad to see people talking about biomechanics for sure. Right now, it's the only answer I see.
# 3
dgrfan88 @ Jun 5
I don't think there is ANY way to prevent injury. You either have an arm or you don't. Mark Prior was dissected by every expert for years. They say his mechanics were perfect. We all know what happened to him. So as long as throwing a baseball is unnatural act, then injury is not a matter of if, but when, some just take longer than others.
# 4
squadron supreme @ Jun 5
They also said Strasburg's mechanics were so good yet he still blew out his elbow despite the Nationals being very careful with him. I think the only thing you can really do with young pitchers or pitchers in general is monitor the pitch count. The problem is power pitchers will throw more pitches. Sale is averaging 104 pitches per start, is that too much I'm not sure. Whats going to be interesting for the Nationals and Whitesox is how they handle their two pitchers sense it seems as if both will be in contention for a playoff spot. I know the Nationals said they would shut Strasburg down no matter what but I just can't see them doing it. I don't think the Whitesox would shut down Sale but they would certainly decrease his pitch limit and look to get him extra rest whenever possible.
# 5
Gary Armida @ Jun 5
@ dgrfan88: I agree with you to the point that there is no way to prevent injury, but something like biomechanics can substantially reduce the injury risk. Biomechanics can find even the slightest variation in a delivery that is a red flag for injury. Prior never had one...most haven't. One guy who touts that he had one? CC Sabathia, one of the most durable pitchers in the game. Al Leiter had TJ Surgery, then went for an analysis...he was healthy the rest of his career. Glavine had one, Clemens too.
@squadron supreme: Strasburg was another who didn't have one. Pitch counts and being careful simply do not work. If a pitcher is late with his arm when his front foot makes contact with the ground, even a second late, he is at risk for injury.
I do agree about power pitchers throwing more. That does expose them to fatigue and delivery flaws. That, most studies point to, is what leads to injuries.
Thanks for reading and thanks for the great discussion.
@squadron supreme: Strasburg was another who didn't have one. Pitch counts and being careful simply do not work. If a pitcher is late with his arm when his front foot makes contact with the ground, even a second late, he is at risk for injury.
I do agree about power pitchers throwing more. That does expose them to fatigue and delivery flaws. That, most studies point to, is what leads to injuries.
Thanks for reading and thanks for the great discussion.
# 6
squadron supreme @ Jun 5
Here is another pretty good article on pitch count philosophyhttp://espn.go.com/mlb/story/_/id/80...-training-arms
# 7
Gary Armida @ Jun 5
That's an excellent read. I've worked with Alan Jaeger before. He is passionate about long toss. He has the right idea for sure. Thanks for sharing that.
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Seeing Sale's delivery makes you cringe with the way his arm lags behind his delivery so much. These organizations need to realize that pitchers with these types of deliveries are as much of a risk to snap their UCL on pitch one as they are on pitch 100.